PowerDraw Winner Anouncement (Weekly updates)

And the 400PB shows 500PB in the URL. Clearly someone is skimming a bit off of the top here…

2 Likes

I think you just have to enter them al to be safe :joy: Good catch though hopefully they have an answer

I’ll probably end up doing the same lol

1 Like

Yea not keeping my hopes up but I also had odd number of PBs so putting 3 of those made it a nice multiple of 5 :joy:

1 Like

I went all in, and i am no lurker.

1 Like

Mathematically it makes no sense to bid for the experienced users here. For example the

image

If the number of entries was less than 400 then your 1:400 chance costing 1 PB is a net statistical positive, but it’s worse than that by over factor of 2.

The entry level of 1PB means the hundreds of users who do nothing but turn up can enter (e.g. 5PB per day for turning up) meaning you’re competing against hundreds of users who collectively make your chance very small.

It is highly likely none of us will recognise the winners.

1 Like

More of lurkers here than regulars. So a safe assumption most of the time :joy:. But I haven’t seen you here as much but good luck on the powerdraw. Hope to see you more often here

That’s great, thanks for taking the time to collate that @jercox :+1:t2:

I might put in one or two powerbucks for that one. Negative expectation value aside, I have a PB count that isn’t a multiple of 5, and this is an opportunity to correct that…

The other two PB drawings have even worse odds, 140 has crossed 4 to 1 against. And I don’t need the car charger or USB-C adapter.

And hey, 1 in 1000 is still a chance.

:joy: Guess you’re taking this opportunity like I did. Good luck!

Logically, the same can be said for doing the Lotto…like most things in life it’s a chance / roll of the dice…

Lol I’m getting rid of 2 PBs too. The number of entries is very high so I won’t hold my breath :rofl:

1 Like

I wanna see what is planned for next week but am certain that it’ll have horrible odds again because of 1PB cost

1 Like

Please ignore the URL link names, the product names right above the entry numbers are the actual things you are entering to get.

5 Likes

image

I’ll eat my hat if a regular community member has won.

image

2 Likes

Ready to see who won all those PBs

1 Like

I’ll ready the salt and pepper just in case :wink:

4 Likes

So unlikely for most of the prizes but one can hope. Out of all the ones in the power draw do you think all will be unknown or one regular will win?

1 Like

Obviously cannot know.

Some regular members will appear but the base of 1 PB means the infrequent members will be represented more.

Regular members will have more PBs and to bet 1 PB to get 1200 chance of 400 PBs means your PBs are delivering 1/3rd the gain. So regular members I’d expect under-represented in the 1200 bids while the infrequent over-represented.

So I’d expect dominated by low PB users who can bid with their 5 PB daily visit.

Salt and pepper for eating my hat ready.

1 Like

Lets say more frequent users bid 1 pb and infrequent bids 20. So to find the number of each 21x=1200.

This will average out to be 57 of regular bidding 1 and 57 irregular bidding 20. This is not a perfect number of member that voted but can show one scenario where the infrequent bid the max and reg bidding 1 pb.

So the least amount of people that have bid so far would be 114 members based on potential numbers stated.

So even if a regular is equal to the irregular that means a regular only has a 57 out of 1200 entries to win or 4.75 percent. I mean if 58 irregulars did it then only 37 regular did it and that drops the percentage to 3 percent and at 59 irregular that is 17 regular and about a 1.4 percentage.

I would not salt and pepper your hat just yet. :wink:

2 Likes