Technology improves so obsolescence is inevitable.
I’d say there’s a good chance of buyer’s regret because your laptop, the most expensive part of the equation, may well work with 45W charger, but chances are it works better with 60W or more.
I’m seeing GaN whitepapers which are moving AC-DC efficiency from around 93% to around 95%. You might think that’s small but means the inefficiency drops from 7% to 5%, so a 28% reduction. That means for any given size, you can get a 28% increase. So for the same size as 45W, you can get 60W.
There is nil electronic cost added to go from 45W to 60W, it’s identical electronic component costs, just tuned for different voltage. The 110V AC from wall is stepped down to 15V (typically) for 45W, so instead is stepped down to 20V. But there are heat dissipation cost if more Wattage causes need for larger thermal dissipation. This is why for any given electronics efficiency, more Wattage costs more (more metal, more plastic). But if you improve electronics efficiency, that non-electronic cost addition is removed.
There are product development costs to recoup, so you’d see a period of 60W costing more than 45W, but not for long, a couple of months.
These GaN components have been shipping for months, so I’m expecting Anker products to come soon.
So logically, I’m seeing a pan-Anker step change as inevitable and over-due. Allowing for the manufacturing hiccup from the virus in the spring, I’m still expecting these now.
Logically, if you had the 60W version at the same cost and size as the 45W, no-one would ever buy the 45W, stock would unsellable at other than a loss, so the precursor to the 60W version announced, which would kill 45W sales, is the 45W are sold at a profit, but a healthy discount (40% discount typically for Anker). The new 60W would then be announced, sold for 2 weeks at list price, then 18% discount. So around 6-8 weeks after 60W announced, it begins to sell for the same cost as today’s 45W.
If your laptop only worked with a max of 45W, then you’d have no regrets.
I have the exact opposite view for portable chargers. If you up the Wattage of them you stress the Lithium cells more, so there is a downside of faster. You can mitigate it via voltage balancers and more use of metal to conduct heat, but at a size and cost.
So for chargers, you want the fastest possible charger that your device supports, but for portable chargers you want the slowest possible charger your device supports.
I’m expecting:
- 100W charger, smaller than the current shipping 4-port 100W.
- 85W charger. Probably before the 100W as there is little need today for 100W other than for powering hubs.
- 60W charger at the size of today’s 45W.
- 45W charger the size of today’s 30W
- 27W charger at the size of today’s 18W.
I can’t accurately predict the dates for releases but when this 45W + 20W hits 40% discount for any length of time, that’s when I think it’s soon. There is a fixed factory capacity, so these can’t all be made and released at same time, the exact release dates would be Anker looking at what sells most today and hitting those first. As 60W is a common popular laptop need, my guess is it is an earlier release, but only Anker will know.
For example this 30W being deeply discounted I take as a the 27W smaller version is more probably sooner than others, more than say the 60W dual.
Wished they shared their roadmap.
) is on sale for just $35.99 with code KINJAKSS45… That’s a tie for the lowest cost to date!
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