You're confusing AND with OR.
Dumb this down to tossing a coin to make it heads/tails just 2 states to keep it simple and assume the coin is perfectly balanced and will give 50/50 chance of either heads or tails. Say you verified that by tossing it 1000 times and it came up 500 heads, 500 tails before you did this thought experiment.
Say you are wanting it to be heads (Amangons wins) but not tails (Amangon does not win).
So at the first toss you got 1:2 chance, 50% chance of winning, as its either 1 head or 1 tail. That was my point, the chance of winning next it exactly the same no matter what was the past.
So then toss the coin the 2nd time. I am making the point the chance of it being heads is still 1:2 so your chance of being a head next is same chance every single time. If you tossed the coin and it came up heads once but then 999 times it came up tails you'd think the coin not random.
You're making a different point, the chance of being heads twice in a row.
So the first toss is heads or tails.
The 2nd toss can be heads or tails.
So there are 4 possible sequences: H T, H H, T H, T T, so the chance of 2 heads in a row is 1:4. So the chance of a specific pattern, say 2 consequtive, goes DOWN over time. But you cannot extrapolate assuming random.
Say you looking for 2 heads in a row with 3 tosses, there are:
HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT.
In that example you had 3 HH in 8 as its an OR operation as that as more times in a long sequence for a subset to appear
But if you said 3 heads in a row it only has 1:8 chance.
You're making that 2 tosses error, saying that because 1:4 is less than 1:2 the chances of you winning goes down over time.
The chance of two rare events in Powercore happening next to each other is low, but the chance of you winning in any particular week is the same within the simple example.
To increase your chances you'd need to bid more often on items with few entries.