PowerDraw Winner Anouncement (Weekly updates)

#4676

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I’ll eat my hat if a regular community member has won.

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2 Likes
#4677

Ready to see who won all those PBs

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#4678

I’ll ready the salt and pepper just in case :wink:

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#4679

So unlikely for most of the prizes but one can hope. Out of all the ones in the power draw do you think all will be unknown or one regular will win?

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#4680

Obviously cannot know.

Some regular members will appear but the base of 1 PB means the infrequent members will be represented more.

Regular members will have more PBs and to bet 1 PB to get 1200 chance of 400 PBs means your PBs are delivering 1/3rd the gain. So regular members I’d expect under-represented in the 1200 bids while the infrequent over-represented.

So I’d expect dominated by low PB users who can bid with their 5 PB daily visit.

Salt and pepper for eating my hat ready.

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#4681

Lets say more frequent users bid 1 pb and infrequent bids 20. So to find the number of each 21x=1200.

This will average out to be 57 of regular bidding 1 and 57 irregular bidding 20. This is not a perfect number of member that voted but can show one scenario where the infrequent bid the max and reg bidding 1 pb.

So the least amount of people that have bid so far would be 114 members based on potential numbers stated.

So even if a regular is equal to the irregular that means a regular only has a 57 out of 1200 entries to win or 4.75 percent. I mean if 58 irregulars did it then only 37 regular did it and that drops the percentage to 3 percent and at 59 irregular that is 17 regular and about a 1.4 percentage.

I would not salt and pepper your hat just yet. :wink:

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#4682

May be “Mr. Random” the well known “master” of that PD is able to follow your formulas! :joy:

#4683

Your illustrative scenario using your stated assumption is good.

On the basis regular members already of plenty of PBs and conclude poor value to bid, while those with few PBs have “nothing to lose” yes I think the entries dominated by low PB owners infrequent users and as your example shows is going to make a small % chance we recognise.

Most people don’t understand probabilities, in real life when I say “probably” I get “you can’t know that” reply taking a probability statement as an opinion.

#4684

so when are they actually going to announce?

#4685

Probably in 5 hours

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#4686

Still no results?

#4687

Not so far, it’s kinda like the lottery…building curiosity of the outcome but not likely to win big :laughing:

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#4688

Really hoping for the strike 1s.

#4689

May be they run short of bucks and they are not able to “pay” right now.
Winners will get a borrower’s note! :rofl::

#4690

Haha, winners get an “IOU”

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#4691

I learned a new abbreviation
“IOU” a beer! :rofl:

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#4692

:rofl::rofl::rofl: ok, ill take that IOU from you Franz.
I trust that you are good for your word :+1:t2:

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#4693

I can store you a beer here Paul.
But after the lockdown it will be sour! :joy:

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#4694

Really curious to know who is getting all those free PB’s… :laughing:

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#4695

What if the admins have pocketed all the PB and ran off?

1 Like