So I’m aware there’s a higher than usual buzz within USA about possibility of captured Extra Terrestial spacecraft, and possibly some aliens (alive/dead). So I thought I’d insert some science based sanity.
Life
We have an example size of 1 - Planet Earth - of how difficult it is form life, then complex life, then intelligent life.
Our Planet formed from a gas cloud containing 7 Billion old elements (iron, calcium, silicon, oxygen etc) from exploded stars, combined with the original 13.8 Billion elements (Hydrogen, Helium).
Our Planet formed 4.5 Billion years ago and got a solid surface with water around 3.8 Billion years ago. As oxygen reacts with elements we can infer that life was around 3.5 Billion years ago from the different rock types being formed - e.g. iron oxide.
So from an example size of 1 we infer that life tends to start easily. Given a key conditions of an energy source (thermal vents, the Sun) and liquid water , life seems to spontaneously exist. Admittedly you’ve got hundreds of millions of years of random processes over a whole planet, so noone is saying it’s easy, just it’s highly likely to happen on every planet with long-duration stable wet conditions.
We now have telescopes which can detect planets and seems there’s a minimum average of 1 planet per star, and as there’s at least 400 Billion stars in our galaxy, there’s probably billions of planets with at least simple life out there. And as we orbit the galaxy roughly every 250 Million years, we’re passing by within a few light years, planets with life.
So Aliens exist is an extremely high probability true statement.
However, from our example size of 1, we also see life stayed very simple for most of the planet’s time, while life existed from 3.5 Billion years ago, it was simple life to approx 500 million years ago, when we begin to get detectable fossils. And complex life capable of intelligence to make machines only happened a few million years ago.
So while there’s likely many planets near us with life, the probability of intelligent life nearby is much less.
Distance
Speed of light cannot be exceeded. Our nearest star is 4.2 light years away. Our current technology, we get to a space vehicle travelling at 35,000 miles per hour. So the 4.2 light years , 2.47e13 miles, would take 80,000 years to get there and the spacecraft to get to that speed is small and light and would shoot past the nearest planets outside this solar system so fast it wouldn’t be hanging around to say hi.
A more advanced technology can certainly increase speed but suffers relatistic time dilation, they age slower relative to background. So doubtful someone alive would do it as when they returned home everyone they knew would be long gone.
Probably Robots
The technological challenges sending a living creature are greater than sending something like a sensor (to look) or simpler mechanical operations (robots).
To get to higher velocity so you can go further and visit more frequently means being lighter, so minimalist. We’re more likely to see a dumb drone than something complex, and more likely to see something mechanic complex than containing live creatures.
So if something alien does visit, we’d expect to see more commonly probes, then something robotic, and least likely is something alive (actual aliens).
Alien visitors
So while life is highly likely, intelligent life is far less likely, and intelligent life visiting us is extremely unlikely.
But not impossible.
It’s more likely to be a drone, something which doesn’t have to keep lifeforms going for long times through space.
It’s more likely to whizz past and we not notice than it lingers around.
Conclusion
Aliens are inevitable but seeing one here is unlikely, so the burden of proof is on those making the claim. If there are alien visitors claim then we have to assume it’s a made up story, as lying and greed is very common. Anyone claiming they know and buy their book to find out more, is probably scamming you.
However, with solid evidence, clearly shown and we can poke it and check it independently, then it’s possibly true.
While we claim to be intelligent, most of us aren’t through choice. Reality is far too complex to know everything, so we tend to jump to a desired conclusion, and make things up, both easier than finding the actual truth. So any Alien claim is most likely a lie, or a premature incorrect conclusion, and is least likely to be true.
So assume it’s a fraud, until clear evidence. Fraud, and foolishness, wanting to believe something so you raise your gullibility to intersect weak evidence, is far easier than an alien technology getting to the sophistication and willingness to visit us.
Thanks for your time.
