So we’re all learning, this bug was new to science in January, but it goes like this:
- 20% who get infected have no symptons, not remotely ill.
- 20% who get infected feel ill enough to need medical help. 90% of these have pre-existing conditions like lung, heart, diabetes, etc problems.
- of the 20% about 20% need ventilators (ICU). So that’s about 4%.
- of those who get to ICU, about 20% die (1%). The oxygen and the ventilators give the body a rest, it’s been fighting the disease for about 3-4 weeks on average by this stage.
So the lockdown is really to make the 4% who will need ICU have a place in hospital. So only 25% of them die. So only 1% die of population, not 4% die of population.
The lockdown is in part to isolate the vulnerable from the strong, delay infection while medical capacity ramps-up, big hospitals built rapidly, and so the 4% get a bed, so the 1% is not higher.
We’re all going to get infected anyway. 20% reading this will have no symptons, 60% feel ill then better, 20% want a doctor and 1% die.
The lockdown just means we individually have more chance of a hospital bed and the aid we need so we don’t die.
If we don’t do lockdown, medical care is overwhelmed and the 1% dead becomes nearer to 4%.
In UK the number in hospital has plateaued, there are thousands of spare beds, so UK is currently working out how to release up lockdown in a manner which slowly gets people infected who are stronger, get immunity, and eventually enough are immune to give the virus less places to go - herd immunity.
Of course there is a totally different alternative to lockdown, you don’t do it, deaths not 1% of population but around 4 times higher.
The typical background rate of death is about 1% a year, e.g. UK population 67 Million, 2019 had 618,000 deaths, so at 1% roughly speaking 80% of those who die would have died anyway in the next couple of years (those who smoke, ate too much, etc). So lockdown basically brings forwards the next year of deaths into the next few months.
If you don’t have lockdown then you have about 4 years of deaths in a compressed period, and then it’s mass graves, mass cremations, etc.
Personally I wished the build-out of medical facilities, pivoting manufacturing to medical provisions, had begun in January, not March.
What I personally did was:
- I was always the strongest, so I moved to voluntary work, doing all the shopping and chores for those weaker.
- this did put me at increased risk of catching, consciously knowing my chances of needing medical help is low, about 5% as I have no medical issues. I may need oxygen.
- I probably have encountered this bug. If so, I am probably now immune. But I don’t know that.
- So I leave the home washing my hands on the way out in case I recently was infected and no symptons. I do the shopping, I don’t touch my eyes, face. I return and wash my hands in case I am not immune and to down-the-sink wash any dosage away.
- I separated the house into isolated living areas back in January-February. We all sleep alone.
- I get shopping lists from those I help, I go out walking to buy. I get about 5 miles to 10 miles a day doing walking-shopping.
- I walk with a 8.4" tablet and check community.anker.com and try to not walk into lampposts.