Powerdraw - we now know our chances - about 1:250 needs nearly 4 years to win

#1

The Powerdraw results in

https://community.anker.com/power_draw/prize/b-powercore-b-5000

From 790 bids there are 3 winners so that’s about 1:250 chance.

Given it takes 200 bucks to maximally bid then that means to get to certainty of winning you need 52667 bucks.

On earning bucks you have 5x5+2*5+5=40 bucks maximum/day so that means you need to be in the forum on average 1317 days, or 3 years and 7 months to win.

Or put it another way at 40 bucks/day maximum, a 200 buck bid takes a minimum of 5 days of maximumally engaged community engagement and after those 5 days minimum you get a 1:250 chance.

Video capture of something more probable:

So what means as a strategy:

  • wait a few weeks where the easy early joining bucks all get spent
  • quantity of bidders goes down
  • ole’ timers have lots of bucks earned over a long time then are proportionately luckier.
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#2

Just because you get heads 10 times in a row doesn’t mean you have any greater chance of getting tails the next time.

To get to certainty of winning you need to be the only person.

#3

You’re correct, perhaps to say to make your chances much higher is better English.

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#4

I strongly agree with your points of strategy though.

#5

Wow, your strategy is great. you really thought that out. Good job @nigelhealy!

#6

Great strategy :+1:t2::+1:t2:

#7

Great! Now that we all know the strategy…we’ll all wait awhile then lessen our chances. LOL.

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#8

Haha, the winners for PowerDraw will be randomly chosen.:joy:

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#9

I only have enough Bucks to basically bid twice.

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#10

hopefully the amount of bidders will go down in a few months.

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#11

As I suspected… from a strategy perspective but I now see I made an error. The math is to divide by entries and ignore that Anker said.

If I look at the 1st week:

https://community.anker.com/power_draw/prize/b-powercore-b-10050

Screenshot 2017-08-04 at 5.05.52 PM.png1085×354 67.8 KB

That was a 3:1415 chance, or 1:472 chance per entry. An older member who had enough bucks could then have 10/3/1415 = 2.12% chance roughly.

Now looking at this week as there are very few members with lots of bucks, so fewer can bid, the odds increase.

So this is now say 10/276x3 = 11% chance of winning, an increased chance of roughly 5x in just a week.

I expect chances can only improve so it becomes asymptotic to regular participating members getting equal chances, which is I think is Anker’s intention.

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#12

Great time to be alive. Hope does exist.

#13

Chances are much better this week for car charger and cable.

#14

Yep I see for the car charger there are 66 entries. So for 10 x 20 bucks = 200 bucks you current chances are 10:77x3 = 30:77 or 1:2.57 currently.

I think patience is best here. Bucks are hard to come by without effort and fewer will put in the effort so the chances increase over time. This is week 3 and already the entries are dropping.

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#15

I think you’re right too.
Didn’t enter any this week.

#16

this is great news, i need more of these great news.

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#17

Not so fast. You must’ve missed the fine print. Sometimes there aren’t any winners.

IMG_0359.PNG1668×778 163 KB

IMG_0358.PNG1668×792 234 KB

IMG_0360.PNG1668×894 256 KB

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#18

I know, the competition ended 12.00am but it’s been like that the 8 hours since. I guess a manual paste edit by a human? So they not yet fully automation?

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#19

Looks fine to me

Screenshot 2017-08-12 at 8.50.31 AM.png834×306 63.3 KB

:innocent:

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#20

what a coincidence that you actually ended up winning that item!

photoshop me my name for every item next week as well.

2 Likes